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illiniranger
October 7, 2020 @ 02:25 AM

Bill Connelly who does SP+ for ESPN had a tweet pre-Covid that I cannot find that Illinois was something like 85th in expected turnovers and ended up like 8th in actual turnovers.

i do not believe that type of expected vs actual turnover discrepancy is sustainable.

if you are a believer in Connelly's Five Factors he says that turnovers are by far the "squishiest" and hardest to duplicate consistently. So if we are relying on turnovers, and it becomes a "thing" it will have more variance than explosiveness, efficiency, finishing drives, and field position.

you can read Connelly explain his take on the five factors here:

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

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