Not sure if you are reviewing for typos but I think you have errors in:
"But if we drop to #31 at some point, Michigan State will have a Quad 2 loss against Illinois in Champaign, not a Quad 1 loss." - switch it to Wisconsin in Madison.
"Five losses" when we have six losses.
Overall a solid take. Season is on track but we haven't really banked any awesome wins in the Big Ten and the schedule is looking really tough on the back end. The hope is to bank enough wins to lock up an NCAA bid ASAP and then play for seeding in the home stretch.
Can we get consistent performance? At what level? I think we're playing like a Top 20 team most nights but I'm not seeing elite performance without better 3-point shooting.