Pulling Our Weight

It's very important to me that everyone understands the significance of all of this. Many of you (most of you) are college basketball fans first and you might need a football-fan-first guy like myself to explain the significance. Maybe you haven't followed all of the changes surrounding the new 12-team playoff and require a refresher. Here comes a big ol' glass of lemonade.

First, a little history. I was a kid-slash-teenager in the 1980's, so my first bowl memories of watching games with my dad had a very clear structure. We would go to my grandmother's on New Year's Eve. We would play that pool game (billiards not belly flop) with my entire family where you'd all draw a number out of this bottle and then you'd take turns hitting balls in pockets and each time a ball went in a pocket the person holding that number would be eliminated. You wouldn't know who had which number until there were two people left and they were both avoiding one number.

We'd then watch the ball drop. Then we'd all go home. Then we'd wake up on New Year's Day and my mom would be watching the Rose Parade. Then, that afternoon, it was usually a big ol' pot of chili and football. The order was very, very specific.

First you chose to either watch the Cotton Bowl in Dallas or the Fiesta Bowl in Tempe. Then the entire bowl schedule was cleared for the Rose Bowl mid-afternoon. And at night, you chose between the Orange Bowl from Miami or the Sugar Bowl from New Orleans. We were an Orange Bowl family because my mom liked to watch the halftime show (back then the Orange Bowl halftime was bigger than the Super Bowl halftime). The second bowl of chili always came during the Orange Bowl (always with a glass of milk for some reason) and then off to bed.

Over the years, a lot has changed. Everything besides "all games clear out for the Rose Bowl mid-afternoon on New Year's Day" has changed, really. First there were "BCS Bowls" starting in the 1990's with the title game (chosen between #1 and #2 in the BCS rankings) rotating around between the historic bowls. With the first playoff games in 2014 we were introduced to the "New Year's Six" bowls (three played on NYE, three played on NYD). And somewhere along the way we added bowl games for every single team 6-6 and above.

That brings us to 2024. And while you might have read up on the changes to the playoff structure, you might not fully understand the full bowl structure. And to explain that I need a few paragraphs on the Big Ten and the SEC.

The power struggle right now – have you heard? – is what was predicted the moment Texas/Oklahoma left for the SEC and USC/Oregon left for the Big Ten. Is there really a Power Four now or is it just a Power Two? This playoff ended up being four Big Ten teams, three SEC teams, two ACC teams, and then the conference champs from the Mountain West and Big 12 plus Notre Dame.

And it should be noted (as Heather Dinich rightly noted on the CFP Rankings show two weeks ago): there was a very real scenario out there where Tulane could have beaten Army in their final game, then won the AAC Championship game, and grabbed the final spot over Big 12 champion Arizona State. That week, Arizona State was 16 and Tulane was 17, so it was a very, very real possibility.

That tells you all you need to know about the current power structure. There was a very real scenario where the Big 12 would have essentially been the #6 conference this year behind the Mountain West and American conferences and would not have had a single team in the playoff. The former Big Twelve – Nebraska vs. Colorado; Oklahoma vs. Texas – reduced to "couldn't get our conference champion in there ahead of Boise State and Tulane."

Power Four? Hardly.

You also don't have to look very far to see the debate about the ACC vs. the Big Ten and SEC. Clemson got the automatic bid (with a resume basically equal to Illinois, I should add, meaning we might have been close to grabbing an automatic bid if we were in one of these other conferences) and then the debate was 11-win SMU vs. a 9-win Alabama team that had lost to 6-6 Vandy and 6-6 Oklahoma. The fact that there was a massive debate tells you all you need to know about the relative strength of the ACC. (And yes, I believe Alabama beats SMU by 17 if they were to meet head-to-head.)

That debate will dominate college football for the next few years. Talent will continue to matriculate to the SEC first, the Big Ten second, and then everyone else 5th. Revenue sharing will widen the gap (some ACC and B12 schools just won't be able to afford it), and most every playoff will be eight teams from the Big Ten & SEC and then the three best conference champs everywhere else.

And it's under THAT structure that this new bowl format was developed. What's that new format? I'm glad you asked. I mean, I've written about it twice already, but maybe you missed those. Let's go through it again.

As you know, the playoff starts on campuses. In two weeks, four games at Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State, and Texas. The four losers go home (no bowl trips for you) and then the quarterfinals are played in four bowl games: The Fiesta Bowl (6:30 PM CT on New Year's Eve) and then the Peach Bowl (12:00 PM CT on New Year's Day), the Rose Bowl (4:00 PM CT) and the Sugar Bowl (7:45 PM CT). The semifinals are a week later (Orange Bowl + Cotton Bowl) and then the championship is at a rotating site (this year: Atlanta) one week after that.

This left the Big Ten/SEC matchups in a tough spot. We used to wake up, flip on the Rose Parade, and then flip over to the Outback Bowl (now the ReliaQuest Bowl) followed quickly by the Citrus Bowl. After that we'd get to the Rose and then the Sugar/Orange. But with the three playoff games on New Year's Day, what to do with those bowls?

They've been moved to New Year's Eve. And they're the lead-in to the first quarterfinal. Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3 in the ReliaQuest and then Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2 in the Citrus followed by the playoff. (A quick clarification: with likely four teams from each conference making the playoff each year, "#2" really means #5 and "#3" really means #6. For the SEC this year, it's #4 and #5 since they only got three teams in the playoff.)

So that sets us up like this for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day:

11:00 am CT: Big Ten #3 (Michigan) vs. SEC #3 (Alabama)
2:00 pm CT: Big Ten #2 (Illinois) vs. SEC #2 (South Carolina)
6:30 pm CT: (6) Penn State or (11) SMU vs. (3) Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

(I'll get to why South Carolina over Alabama in a second.)

The other conferences have attempted to set up some matchups against those games (just like every other non-playoff bowl in history). At 1:00 on New Year's Eve will be the Sun Bowl (ACC #5 Louisville vs. Pac 12 #4, being filled this year by Washington). And then a half hour after our game starts will be the Texas Bowl (remember that one?) which will be Big 12 #4 (Baylor) vs. SEC #7 (LSU). But I don't think I have to explain to you that Big Ten #2 vs. SEC #2 and Big Ten #3 vs. SEC #3 are prioritized over ACC #5/Pac12 #4 or Big 12 #4/SEC #7.

So you can understand why these two games (ReliaQuest and Citrus) are important to the conferences and the television networks. They used to be the "kick off a big day of bowls on New Year's Day" games (with the Outback/ReliaQuest often kicking off at 10:00 am central time). Now they're the lead-ins to the first playoff game on New Year's Eve.

And you can also understand why the conferences set up a rematch of last year's Rose Bowl in the ReliaQuest Bowl this year. If you're wondering why I tweeted this immediately after the playoff bracket reveal yesterday morning...

It's because of the whole "don't really have to take the next team in the win column" thing. The Big Ten (and the SEC, for the most part) have always done bowl selections based on "you're up next, and you get a choice of any of the 8-4 or 7-5 teams available" thing. They couldn't pick a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team, but they could pick a 7-5 team over an 8-4 team. Which is exactly what the ReliaQuest Bowl did by taking 7-5 Michigan over 8-4 Iowa.

(I noted this on Slack last week, but it's also the reason I'm glad we won the Northwestern game. Before that game I noted that I believed we had the Citrus Bowl wrapped up. The only team I saw getting within one win of us was Iowa, and Iowa was in the Citrus last year and couldn't go there this year. So I figured we were in the Citrus whether we were 8-4 or 9-3. What I didn't consider was Michigan beating Ohio State and getting to 7-5 instead of 6-6. I'm so glad we won our 9th game or this might have been Michigan going to the Citrus Bowl.)

Anyway, the reason I tweeted that was because the conferences are usually involved with the bowl selection process. They're in the corner giving a thumbs up or a thumbs down. Yes, the Citrus Bowl folks might have wanted Alabama (and their massive fanbase) at their bowl game, but the Big Ten and SEC officials on the Zoom call might have said "you know, we'd prefer a Rose Bowl rematch in Tampa." That meant that Iowa got screwed and dropped down to the Music City Bowl, but I don't think anyone outside of The Nothing Ever Happens State™️ cares about that.

My point here: The reward for this 9-3 season (for both Illinois and South Carolina) is the #1 non-playoff bowl. It was my focus the moment we beat Michigan and I can't believe we're actually headed there. Four Big Ten teams in the playoff (good for you, Indiana, and I mean that sincerely) and then "Big Ten #2" is ILLINOIS.

I mean, we're actually pulling our weight! The Citrus Bowl (because of the TV dollars) has always been the largest payout outside of the BCS/NY6/CFP Playoff games. The Big Ten distributes those payouts evenly (add them all up and then each team gets an equal share) and we've been living off everyone else for decades (thanks, everyone!). Now we get to legitimately pull our weight.

Quick, someone ask me. ASK ME!

"Robert, how did Penn State hang on to the #6 seed in order to get the easy path of SMU followed by Boise State to reach the semifinals?"

Because they had a quality win over #20 Illinois.

Pulling. Our. Weight.

That might have me more excited than anything else this past month. A seat at the table. A rebuilt reputation. Purdue and Northwestern in shambles and ILLINOIS merch flying off the shelves.

That reminds me of something. I will now show you the Big Ten standings and I will circle the two teams we will play every single year because of protected rivalries:

Two of our nine conference games every year against those two.

What's that? You want to see all of the teams on our 2025 schedule (game dates to be announced this week)? That's probably a good way to end this article.

The nine Big Ten teams on our 2025 schedule:

Get your 2025 season tickets ASAP. I mean that. You won't want to miss it.

Illini football is pulling its weight.