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NERDstats

So How Did We Get Here?

So How Did We Get Here?
Photo Credit: Illinois Sports Information

I have so much to say in this article. I honestly think it will take me at least 10 hours to write it. I spent three hours yesterday just researching one tiny piece of this. I mean, I have an entire outline written out (I've done that maybe three times in 16 years). There's so much I want to say.

The hardest part when faced with a situation like this: where to start. I know where I want to end. I've written down the sections I want to write to get there. But I can't figure out where to start and I can't figure out the order.

I guess I'll just start with the IlliniBoard NERDstat Index. That's the core of all of these articles. I'll start down that path and then hopefully I'll see which direction to go once I reach the end of each section.

The I-N-I

This one is simple. I take the ratings from Bill Connelly (SP+), Brian Fremeau (FEI), Kelley Ford (K-Ford), and ESPN (FPI) and make one composite rating. Here's what the Big Ten looks like (national ranking for each team) after eight weeks:

And now I'll do the thing that I do every week where I put the ranked teams in bold:

  1. Ohio State
  2. Oregon
  3. Penn State
  4. Indiana
  5. USC
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Iowa
  8. Michigan
  9. Washington
  10. Minnesota
  11. Maryland
  12. Nebraska
  13. Illinois
  14. Rutgers
  15. Michigan State
  16. Northwestern
  17. UCLA
  18. Purdue

We are eight weeks in and the thing I've been saying for a month about the NERDstats screaming that Indiana is legit and Illinois is not keeps getting louder and louder. Vegas uses metrics very similar to these to set betting lines, so I do believe that if we played any of those 12 teams in front of us on a neutral field, Vegas would have the opponent favored. Yes, even Nebraska and Maryland.

So does that mean we're not very good? I mean, that's obviously not the case. We already beat Nebraska and Michigan. Kansas is #43 on this I-N-I (we're #50) and we already beat them as well. So how are we supposed to frame the fact that we're 6-1 with the 50th-best statistics in the country? How did we get here?

That's what we're here to discuss. Buckle up.

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