We have one really difficult game remaining, in my opinion: at Maryland. We do play one other ranked team - Iowa - but they might not be ranked by the time we play then. We're done with MSU, we're done with Purdue, and we're done with Michigan. So... how many of these can we expect to win? And will we learn anything?

Here's the list. And why not - I'll toss a bone to the NERDstatters and list the KenPom rank for each team. Worth noting: our current KenPom is 97.

Nebraska #105
at Indiana #21
at Minnesota #198
Ohio State #60
Wisconsin #62
at Rutgers #278
Iowa #11
at Northwestern #48
Rutgers #278
at Wisconsin #62
Indiana #21
Minnesota #198
Maryland #15
Penn State #148

So really, besides Iowa (who will play Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, and Purdue in their next five games and likely drop), there's not really a frightening opponent until the game at Maryland in March. We've already lost to #4 and #30 and beat #13, but there's a lot of double digit opponents coming up.

To establish a baseline here, we have to sweep Minnesota and Rutgers. At this point is looks like both teams are headed for 1-17 in the conference (assuming the split their games against each other). Minnesota has won only once since November and just lost to Nebraska by 25 and Northwestern by 25. Rutgers has lost five in a row, the last four by at least 20 points. So, really, injuries to Abrams Thorne and Black or no injuries, we have to sweep Rutgers and Minnesota. And just for fun, let's say we split the final two games vs. Maryland and Penn State.

That would put us at six wins (Purdue plus assuming sweep Minnesota, sweep Rutgers, beat Penn State) and four losses (Michigan, at Ohio State, at MSU, assuming at Maryland). Take all of that out and the rest of the season comes down to these games:

Nebraska #105
at Indiana #21
Ohio State #60
Wisconsin #62
Iowa #11
at Northwestern #48
at Wisconsin #62
Indiana #21

Even with all the injuries, I think we can learn a lot by studying those eight games. We're not going to win at Maryland (unless both Thorne and Black return and we get lucky). We're not going to lose at home to Rutgers (nobody is - they're horrendously awful). So if we toss out those "nothing" games (see last week's MSU game without Nunn, Abrams, Thorne, and Black if you want my thoughts on "nothing" games) and we toss out the "everyone will beat Rutgers this year" games, we're down to eight games where we might learn something.

Yes, we're short-handed. Yes, the tournament is gone. But can we compete in these games? Can we get better as the season goes on?

OK, yes, the tournament isn't actually gone yet. With a quality win over Purdue and maybe quality wins over Iowa and Indiana looming, 12-6 probably does the trick. Go 6-2 in those eight games, sweep Minnesota and Rutgers, win at Penn State, and we're probably in. That's not going to happen, but yes, it is still possible. Get Thorne back, JCL continues to improve, we get alpha dog performances from Nunn and Hill every game and yes, it's possible.

But I think that ship has sailed. So what can we then learn from those eight games? Let's rank them from most likely to win to least likely to win.

Nebraska
Wisconsin (I know, right?)
Ohio State
at Northwestern
at Wisconsin
Indiana
Iowa
at Indiana

Well that was certainly a gross ending. If I'm looking at those games and seeing something like 3-5, then that means a loss to Iowa, a loss at Northwestern, and swept by Indiana. Yuck.

Still, this is where the Purdue win has turned things around for me. After the debacle at Michigan State we were discussing whether this would be 1999 with three Big Ten wins. Now, looking at how bad some of these teams have been so far, I'm thinking we might finish... 9-9?

Is that really what I'm landing on here? I think it is. Nine wins: Purdue (1), sweep Minnesota (2 & 3), sweep Rutgers (4 & 5), Nebraska (6), Wisconsin (7), Ohio State (8), at Penn State (9). Yep, that lands me on nine wins. Nowhere near the tournament, probably not even in the NIT (with a first round BTT loss our record would be 17-15 and I think that's not likely to make the NIT).

What am I getting at here? Not sure. Mostly, I wanted to look for games where we're learn something about this team. Things we can build on for next season. And I think I found eight games where we'll learn a lot. Five at home, three on the road, none of the opponents are overwhelmingly good like MSU or Maryland, none of the opponents shockingly bad like Minnesota and Rutgers.

Eight games against our supposed peers in the conference. We need to prove we can compete.