Margin Call


Walkon
Nov 21, 2019
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15 Comments

It's been apparent to anyone watching over these first two weeks of the season that this Illinois team has yet to hit full stride. After five games Illinois has arrived at the 4-1 record most expected, but the journey to that record has not followed an easy road. Overtime against Nicholls State in the opener. A "grind it out" win at Grand Canyon. A late collapse in Tucson. A sluggish first half against Hawaii just two nights ago.

There is something to be said for baptism by fire, and obviously winning is better than losing some of these games (LOL NORTHWESTERN), but if you are consistently struggling to put away lower caliber teams, then it is fair to wonder about your own caliber. They say you can't learn much from a blowout win, but you can learn something from a lot of blowout wins.

We know that victory margin matters, or at the very least it tells us a good story. The moral of that story is that great teams beat bad teams, and tend to do so by a significant margin. They also rarely get blown out themselves. Consider scoring margin as eye test validation, or as they say in Vegas - good teams win, but great teams cover the spread. Do they say that in Vegas? Well, they should.

So while it's fair to fret over the schematic vagaries we've seen over the four games prior to tonight, I've taken a much more simplistic view of the start to this season. We should be blowing these teams out - but haven't been. We can talk all day about the deeper reasons behind some of these struggles, but the victory margin statistic concisely wraps everything up with a nice little bow.

I don't mean to imply that every one of these buy games requires a beat down of epic proportions, but at the end of the year, the list of teams with the highest victory margin is going to also be a list of NCAA tournament contenders. Not just participants - but legitimate title contenders.

Last season 21 teams finished the regular season with a scoring margin of +10 or better. 19 of those teams were NCAA Tournament participants - including every number one and number two seed.

Illinois' victory margin through the first 4 games was just +3. Skewed obviously by the 21 point loss to Arizona, but even in the three games vs Nicholls State, Grand Canyon, and Hawaii (a combined average KenPom ranking of 186) - the Illini were just +11. That's not exactly confidence inspiring.

These games against low major teams should be stick sharpeners. Blowing away inferior opponents in November and December is a trait of teams who have already established a comfort zone. It is clear the Illini have yet to find that zone.

Needless to say, I was looking for some dominance against a defensively challenged Citadel team playing their second of games on consecutive nights and who were also without their injured leading scorer. They were running on fumes and were ripe for a proper beating. We finally obliged - shaking off another slow start and riding a dominant front court performance en route to 51 second half points and an 85-57 (+28!) win.

We should expect (hope) to see more of the same this Saturday against Hampton (#215).

OTHER STUFF

+The Illinois front court has been flat out dominant. The Citadel had no answer for Kofi Cockburn as he bulled his way to 18 points and a new Illinois freshman single game record 17 rebounds. He is easily the story of the season to this point, and deservedly so, but despite some early struggles, Giorgi Bezhanishvili is also starting to round back into form. After tonight the two are averaging over 25 points and 18 rebounds combined and look more and more comfortable together with each game.

+The three point shooting has officially become a concern. Despite a bunch of open looks, Illinois connected on only three deep balls tonight and are now shooting just 28% on the season. I have to believe these shooters will "regress" to their career norms over the course of the year, but it's fair to wonder if the new distance is having more of an effect than anticipated. Illinois needs to start making threes to help stretch the floor or it's going to start getting much easier for teams to scheme against Giorgi and Kofi.

+Deon Thomas stood to applaud when Cockburn corralled his record breaking 17th rebound tonight to break the record he had previously shared with Damir Krupalija. He did the same after watching Giorgi Bezhanishvili break his single game freshman scoring record last season. While it's certainly great that we've finally been able to recruit players capable of breaking records such as these, it also highlights just how great Deon was at Illinois. People forget that.

+After five games it's now pretty obvious that this Illini team has a brand new identity. This year's team is rebounding everything, getting to the foul line, not fouling themselves, and playing at a slow tempo - pretty much the polar opposite of Underwood's first two teams at Illinois. When asked about the change in style after the game tonight, Underwood gave a refreshingly honest answer - stating that after some "self-evaluation" he realized he needed to make some changes based upon last year's struggles, and also because of the changes in the makeup of the roster (the Kofi factor). After talking so much about having successfully established an identity and culture at the end of last season, it's fascinating that he went about the next six months creating a brand new one.

+A quick recruiting note. Top 40 shooting guard Adam Miller from Morgan Park HS is set to make his decision between Illinois, Arizona, and Louisville tonight. He will do so at the Michael Jordan store in downtown Chicago - where Ayo Dosunmu made public his choice to go to Illinois two years ago. If Miller picks Illinois (as is being predicted based upon the 100% Crystal Ball forecast) he will join Andre Curbelo and Coleman Hawkins to form what will easily be Underwood's best recruiting class to date. A foundation is forming.

Comments

ATOillini on November 21 @ 09:17 AM CST

"just how great Deon was at Illinois"........amen

"A foundation is forming.".........yes please

hoop on November 21 @ 10:01 AM CST

Read that Miller will commit today but not sign. Anyone know why?

Illinifanbobj on November 21 @ 10:32 AM CST

Pretty sure the early signing period ended yesterday.

Walkon on November 21 @ 11:34 AM CST

It is not outside the realm of possibility that he signed yesterday and is just waiting until tonight to make it public.

That said if he didn’t sign then it’s just insurance for him in case the dynamic at Illinois should change.

I’m surprised that more highly recruited kids don’t hold off on signing a binding LOI. In most cases they have all the leverage.

Groundhogday on November 21 @ 12:28 PM CST

Everything we've heard indicates that Adam Miller will (a) commit to Illinois and (b) hold of on signing until the spring in order to hedge his bets (e.g. Ayo does not go pro).

jdl on November 21 @ 12:58 PM CST

Even old man Tate has heard more than that...many think he's signed already. Will find our for sure in a couple hours.

Groundhogday on November 21 @ 04:46 PM CST

Sure would be great if Tate had a scoop this time around. :)

AHSIllini32 on November 21 @ 02:13 PM CST

Don't be so sure....

skibdaddy on November 21 @ 12:00 PM CST

A couple notes thus far this season from an untrained eye:

  1. Ayo looks like he will be back next year... not looking like a NBA lottery pick - he's pressing (if this happens, Miller goes elsewhere)
  2. Kofi looks to be 1 and done
  3. Our defense is much less aggressive and having a shot blocker down low changes things, but our guards still allow penetration too easily
  4. The offense is coming around and our go to will be easy buckets from the bigs

Groundhogday on November 21 @ 05:07 PM CST

Agree Kofi looks like a lottery pick so far, but we really haven't played many teams with P5 big men. And obviously he wasn't so dominant going against the future-NBA big man at Arizona. But for this early in the season, he sure is more dominant than I would have guessed.

Vikings0001 on November 21 @ 06:25 PM CST

Ayo has never looked like a lottery pick and he won’t wait to become one because I doubt he ever is one. He’s gone after this year and will be in the 20-30 range I bet. Kofi will not be a one and done because he won’t be drafted high. This is 2019 not 1990. The center position favors athletic skilled raw guys with potential who can guard 4s and have some outside scoring abilities. He doesn’t and never will have that athleticism I don’t think. He could easily be a 4 year player who’s drafted 2nd round after 4 years.

Giovantischixstripz on November 22 @ 09:40 AM CST

I agree Kofi will not be a lottery pick for the reasons you just mentioned. You can't find a single big man in the first round the past 3-4 years that isn't either an elite athlete/rim protector or able to stretch the floor, Kofi is neither of those, he's got second rounder written all over him. That said, I don't think he is a 4 year player either because his stock isn't going to go much higher with more time in college, so he might decide he wants to start making money earlier. If I had to guess I would think he is a 2 and done, as Brad convinces him to stay one more year and work on his fundamentals a bit more, perhaps give him the chance to develop a midrange game so he maybe improves his stock into the back half of the first round.

Groundhogday on November 21 @ 08:13 PM CST

So... committed but not signed. Wants to "evaluate all options." Sounds like Illinois is the school, but keeping options open in case... coaching change, problems, Ayo returns, Michigan comes back into the picture? Sounded so enthusiastic about Illinois, so hard to interpret this.

IBFan on November 21 @ 08:33 PM CST

Let’s see if Kofi can handle power 5 teams, looks great though!

Adam Miller can just go about his way. BU should recruit over him, under him, besides him, something. Amazing how out of control the recruiting situation has become.

Groundhogday on November 21 @ 10:33 PM CST

If Adam Miller just wants to be sure Ayo is leaving for the NBA after this season, no need to recruit over him. Just plan on having either Ayo or Miller next season. Not a bad either or.

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